CD sales overtook vinyl sales around 1988, according to a graph I vaguely recall seeing a while ago. Twenty years later, in 2008, vinyl sales overtook CD sales, in another article I sorta remember reading. Vinyl sales have significantly climbed since, and account for the majority of sales for physical media in music. Sadly, this still pales in comparison to money spent on music writ large. That slice of the pie still goes to Spotify. Even more sadly, if you go look at that pie chart, physical music sales in general are a tiny little sliver. That sliver is divided up even further, between CDs, vinyl records, and (against all reason and the natural order of things) cassette tapes.
I doubt anyone could’ve predicted that comeback. There was definitely a period there in the late '90s and early '00s, where vinyl nearly died. I know this because albums that came out around that time arereally hard to find on vinyl. Likely because either very few were pressed, or simply none at all. CDs were at their absolute dominance at this point, and the Napster revolution was just around the corner.
Even though the tech oligarchs assumed that physical media in general would die, and it would just be invisible data downloaded (later streamed) directly into our brains for a price (later a monthly service fee), the people rose up and said otherwise with their dollar.
Vinyl (with a download card) came out on top, after the clash of titans in the late 2000s, as the victor in the short-lived media wars for no other reason than a bunch of obnoxious hipsters said it sounded better. Suspiciously, this vinyl resurgence coincided with the insufferable stomp-clap-hey era of indie rock. That shit sounds like it was made for vinyl and the unwashed assholes who brag about owning it.
But eras come and go. Just like in the late '90s, they thought nothing would replace CDs, and like how we now believe nothing will replace capitalism, time makes fools of us all. Empires rise and fall.
So what’s the next cool, quirky, obnoxious music snob medium that’ll overtake vinyl? The twenty-year cycle is nearly upon us. Come 2028, it'll be time for one medium to eclipse the current champion. What will it be? The hipsters tried (and thank fucking God failed) to make cassette tapes the next thing, so luckily it won’t be that.
CDs
The beaten contender rises again to snatch back its title. You think I'm being funny, but this is a very real possibility. Calling it now that in 2028, CD sales will surpass vinyl sales. Then, the pendulum will swing back to vinyl in 2048. And so on. On the real, look at eBay and Discogs. Certain CDs, from the late '80s through the '90s, are stupidly expensive. They are becoming collector’s items—especially golden age hip-hop. I've seen some going for over $200. Insane right? Plus, they are literally starting to advertise Bluetooth CD players...as like a cool new compact thing to play all those CDs you aren't able to play, 'cause nothing has a disc drive anymore. I mean, it's just a CD player. We already have those, but they’re just rebranding and reselling them to us. Look it up. Calling it now. 2028.
Flash Drives
Look this up, too. The White Stripes did a short run of their last album, Icky Thump, as little Jack and Meg Lego-ish figure flash drives. As far as I know, absolutely no one bought them. I see some insufferable hipster indie rockers trying to make this a thing again. Just like that foul-smelling fuckwit in dirty overalls, asking you if you'll buy their shitty acoustic songs on a cassette tape, at the sweaty basement show you just suffered through. I think that same dipshit is going to be trying to hawk his one-sided breakup songs on flash drives come next year.
Eight-Tracks
Who knows. Where the cassette tape resurgence failed, maybe the eight-track resurgence will succeed. They do have some obvious benefits, such as not being able to be rewound, and also playing in a continuous loop. These bulky, unruly cartridges could appeal to the same assholes who brag about what medium they own an album on, to folks at a party who didn't ask. There's already a hardcore eight-track label called "Hate Track." I'm not making this up.
The Radio:
This might be the left turn that no one expects. Downloading music was not defeated by a cooler, slicker medium, but by simply streaming music. An even more frictionless way to consume music. Still, both of these things cost money. The only way to make the consumption even frictionless…er? Make it free, but not in an illegal way. Free with ads! I could see those same unbearable hipsters brag about how they don't even buy music anymore. They just listen to the radio. But like, not in a mainstream way, in a nostalgic/ironic way.
iPods:
It’s coming. Don’t pretend it’s not. We are one TikTok away from some stoned zoomer doing that annoying thing where they talk with the words going across the screen about how there used to be iPhones that your helicopter parents couldn't call you on, and they were just for music. The little wheel selector, the blue and white screen. The whole process of "loading one up." It's all gonna come around as a cool, nostalgic blast from the past. Kids will have them dangling next to their fucking labubus, and pay top dollar for the older, bulky ones for cool points. Hopefully, you still have your old iPod so you can gouge some insecure, clout-chasing zoomer for it. Follow me for more free financial advice.
